Playoff Possibility

By: Matthew | September 29th, 2009

The Playoff picture is coming into focus as the season comes to a close. Currently the Fire are in a pretty good spot. Second place in the East by 4 points with three games left in the season.

For those who are not familiar with the MLS Playoff format, here are the basics:
-Eight teams make the playoffs
-Top two teams from each conference make it
-After the top teams, the next four teams with the most points take the wildcard spots
-The divisions of the wildcard teams does not matter

4 points can be made up quickly. If the Revs (currently 3rd in the East) win and tie while the Fire lose two the teams will be tied. However, it is not so simple because the Revs have played 2 fewer games than the Fire, giving them two more opportunities to make up ground.

However if you look deeper into the standings, you will see that it is unlikely for the Fire to slip out of the wildcard spots. For that to happen, DC will need to make up a minimum of 5 points in three games with the Fire not gaining any.

Now looking at the schedule, we play at LA, at New England, and vs Chivas. We are one of the strongest teams on the road, so two opportunities on the road is good for us. We have not had luck against LA this season, and they were sans-Beckham due to a red card when we lost 2-0 at Toyota Park. However, we tied NE at home and beat them away during the Superliga. I think both of these games will be tough, but I am expecting two draws. LA has a good hold of the West but the way they tore us apart at home, it will be more likely we will tie than pull a win. New England will be sprinting out of the gate. Since they are at the bottom of the wildcard teams, they need all the points they can get and especially against a team ahead of them in the same conference. However, we have been playing well against them in recent history so I think we can pull it off. Chivas will also not be that bad of a game. They are fighting for a wildcard spot as well, but they are very weak on the road. I say we pull off a win and therefore adding 5 points to our current 41. This will set us up for a likely second or third place finish in the east, well within the wildcard teams, even unreachable by DC if they win out the season.

No matter the situation, we are most likely to end up playing the Revs in the playoffs. They have kicked us out of the post-season plenty of times, but last year we returned the favor. I think we can do it again and we will likely face the Crew who we have tied all three meetings this year. But I am now getting too far ahead of myself.

Let’s focus one game at a time, but know with just a few points we can surely be in the playoffs once again. Go Fire!